Pundits should stop making premature election predictions

In late August, New York Times columnist David Brooks wrote a piece practically anointing Gov. Rick Perry as “possibly our next president.“ In his argument, he makes reference to the “slew of polls showing Gov. Rick Perry of Texas surging to double-digit national leads.” He went on to analyze why Perry’s brand of politics was more appealing to today’s Republican Party, citing electoral trends and shifts in voter attitudes that make him a credible contender in 2012.

The problem with his analysis -- just one month later -- is that it was extremely premature. Perry’s uneven performances in Republican debates, his uncompromisingly blunt views on issues such as Social Security -- which he maligns as a ponzi scheme, and climate change, which he suggests is a scientific hoax -- have weakened his so-called front-runner status. Some Republicans are now even questioning his electability, a point that was made all the more clear with candidate Herman Cain’s runaway victory in the recent Florida straw poll. Cain garnered 37.1% support to Perry’s 15.4%. So much for Perry being dubbed the anointed one.

So why did Brooks, one the most thoughtful op-ed writers around today, make such premature claims about a candidate untested on the national stage? Well, he did what too many members of today’s chattering class tend to do: fail to appreciate the uncertain and ever-changing nature of politics. If we know anything about polls, we know that they can change in an instant, especially this far out from an election. But pundits often ignore that reality, offering short-sighted “perspectives of the moment” as if political conditions and events remain constant.

Now that Perry appears more like a political liability than an asset for the Republican Party, Brooks would have been wise to include a few caveats in his article trumpeting Perry's presidential election potential. After all, it wasn’t long ago that Donald Trump soared to the top of the polls among the Republican presidential contenders, only to see his standing and appeal quickly fade once voters got a chance to hear what he had to say. This lesson was certainly recent enough to serve as a cautionary tale for rushing to judgment too quickly. Also, a look back at the 2008 Republican primary, which was rife with erroneous predictions about presumed frontrunners and likely nominees, should be enough to chasten any pundit from speaking with certainty about the likely primary outcome.

Perry’s recent fall from grace by no means suggests he’s out of the running for the Republican nomination. His political fortunes could just as easily rise again should he alter his message and tone to appeal to those primary voters who now view him with skepticism. At least I am willing to wisely hedge on the outcome, acknowledging the possibility for a Perry rebound. Brooks could have avoided having egg on his face had he offered a perspective on Perry that did the same.