GOP and Math: Their Problems Go Beyond Poll Number Blindness

Much has been mentioned since the results of the recent presidential election about the GOP’s problem with math. More specifically, about the apparent willingness among many conservatives to blatantly shun polls numbers and other data before the election that had pointed to the high probability of a President Obama win. Many conservative pundits and commentators, especially those broadcast on the Fox News Channel, asserted with unflinching certitude, even gleeful self-assurance that Mitt Romney would “win in a landslide!”  Of course, Obama’s commanding Electoral College sweep proved those predictions to be not just wrong, but dead wrong.

MSNBC’s Rachel Maddow believes the party’s shock and denial about the election was the consequence of living in a Republican bubble fueled by a rightwing spin machine. She noted that the election result “was not magic; it was just math -- math that was completely invisible to the political right.”

But the GOP’s problems with arithmetic goes well beyond absurdly false predictions and partisan skewing of poll numbers. Conservatives made fundamental miscalculations across the board about the electorate, political issues and changing cultural attitudes in the country. The party’s challenge moving forward will require a major re-calculation of the political landscape that today is quite different than one the party has long relied on to win elections.

Having often been indifferent to the concerns of minority voters, the GOP got a rude awakening by the sheer growth of Latino, black and Asian voters as a percentage of the overall electorate this year. And even more shocking was the astounding level of support these group gave to Democrats over Republicans: More than 90 percent of blacks and nearly three-quarters of both Latinos and Asians voted for Obama.

But this demographic trend showing a burgeoning minority presence in the country, particularly among Latinos, has been apparent for years. The GOP, with the exception of George W. Bush who received about 40 percent of the Latino vote in 2004, simply chose to ignore it. Conservative commentator Charles Krauthammer suggested two years ago that the GOP’s challenge with Latino voters was more of a long-term problem for the party and not an immediate concern - again another gross miscalculation.

And like the Latino vote, the GOP completely misread the emerging youth vote, which overwhelmingly backed Obama by 60 percent, a slightly larger margin than in 2008.  The flawed assumption was that young voters, who had expressed some disappointment with Obama, wouldn‘t come out in mass in 2012.  The fact that young voters don’t have a strong history of voting consistently may have also aided the GOP’s flawed assumptions. But as with minority voter turnout, their political calculation completely missed the mark.

On the economy, Republicans made another political blunder.  Mitt Romney staked his entire campaign on pitching voters a gloomy narrative about the state of the U.S. economy under Obama, claiming it was worst than it was four years ago. His calculation was that a "bad" economy meant certain election defeat for an incumbent president. The problem, however, was that his dubious claims didn't square with current economic reality: a declining unemployment rate, consumer confidence at a five-year high, increasing housing prices and improvement in economic growth. Sometimes reality simply trumps political spin.

On the social issue front, the GOP suffered yet another miscalculation.  Despite polls that had been showing a dramatic shift in public attitudes toward gay marriage acceptance, with a slight majority now supporting it, GOP opposition persisted.  Conservatives even touted the fact that whenever same-sex marriage was put before voters, it was always defeated.  And that held true until Maine and Maryland and Washington all approved marriage equality for same-sex couples on Election Day. The result offered more evidence of an American society holding ever more moderate views on gay marriage and other social issues. This shift is being fueled in large measure by a more socially liberal young generation. But while this seismic cultural shift continues, the GOP clings to a rigidly conservative base and outdated approach to some social issues that fails to resonate.

So yes, the GOP has a math problem.  But the issue isn’t just that they sometimes choose to ignore inconvenient facts such as polls; it’s that too many things they advocate and represent as a party just doesn‘t seem to add up. Conservative strategist and commentator Matthew Dowd said it best in describing the current GOP’s challenge as a “Mad Men party in a Modern Family America.”

“Mad Men” is of course a reference to the popular AMC drama set in 1960s America where white men ruled and women were relegated to being stereotypical housewives. ABC’s successful “Modern Family” depicts a prominent married gay couple raising an adopted daughter. The former is a throwback to a time long past and the latter captures family life in today’s more tolerant society.

If the GOP expects its party’s fortunes to improve it must start by re-calculating how to adapt its message and policies to align with this new cultural and political reality. Only time will tell if their changes add up to any value by the next election.